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Running an MMA Prediction Pool
By My Wheel Name TeamPublished July 25, 20263 min read
MMA prediction pools fall apart for one of two reasons. Either the scoring is too simple to separate anyone, or nobody agreed what happens on a split decision.
Fight night is a good pool format
A card runs a dozen or so fights in one evening, which means a pool resolves the same night rather than dragging across a season. That's rare and it's the format's main advantage.
It also means everyone is watching the same thing at the same time, which most sweepstakes never achieve.
Where the wheel actually helps
Not for the whole card. Most participants have opinions about the main event and no opinion at all about the first three fights on the prelims.
That's the gap. Use the wheel for the fights nobody can call, and let people pick the ones they actually have a view on. A pool where everyone guesses randomly on eight of twelve fights isn't a prediction pool.
Scoring that separates people
- One point for the correct winner. This alone produces too many ties across a card.
- A bonus point for the correct method, meaning knockout, submission or decision.
- A further bonus for the correct round, which is where genuinely knowledgeable participants pull away.
- Double points on the main event, so the card builds rather than being settled on the prelims.
- Nothing for a fight that's cancelled or changed at the weigh in, which happens more often in MMA than in most sports.
Running it
A pool that resolves cleanly
- Lock picks before the first prelim: Not before the main card. Late picks on early fights are the most common source of arguments.
- Use the wheel for the unknown fights: Spin for a winner on the fights nobody has a view on, so the pool is decided by the calls people actually made.
- Post the scoring rules first: Method, round, split decisions and cancellations. All four come up on a typical card.
- Score as the night runs: Rather than at the end. It keeps people engaged through the prelims, which is where most of the fights are.
Handling cancellations
Fights fall off cards regularly, sometimes at the weigh in. A pool with no rule for it ends in an argument roughly every third event.
The cleanest rule is to void the fight for everyone and score the rest. Trying to reassign picks to a replacement opponent is where the disputes start.
Lock picks early, spin for the fights nobody knows, score method and round as well as winner, and agree the split decision rule before anything starts.
Questions, answered
How should an MMA prediction pool be scored?
A point for the correct winner, a bonus for the correct method, and a further bonus for the correct round. Winner alone produces too many ties across a twelve fight card to separate anyone meaningfully.
What do I do about split decisions?
Decide before the card whether a split decision counts as a correct call, and write it down. In the faster divisions like bantamweight, output is high enough that contested decisions are common rather than rare.
Should the wheel pick every fight?
No. Most people have views on the main card and none at all on the early prelims. Use the wheel for the fights nobody can call and let people pick the rest, otherwise it isn't a prediction pool.
What happens when a fight is cancelled?
Void it for everyone and score the remaining fights. Cancellations and weigh in failures happen regularly, and reassigning picks to a replacement opponent is where the arguments start.
When should picks be locked?
Before the first preliminary fight rather than before the main card. Allowing late picks on early fights is the most common source of disputes in a fight night pool.